What Does A Star Is Born's Snub Mean For Its Oscar Chances?

Photo: Courtesy of Warner Bros Pictures.
The results of the 76th Annual Golden Globes are in, and A Star Is Born was shut out of all categories except for one. It was a big upset for the film, which was expected to be a frontrunner for the upcoming Oscar nominations later this month. But despite five Golden Globe nominations, Bradley Cooper's directorial debut only took home Best Original Song for "Shallow," written by Lady Gaga and Mark Ronson. Bohemian Rhapsody took home the award for Best Motion Picture — Drama, while Rami Malek and Glenn Close beat out Bradley Cooper (who also lost to Alfonso Cuarón for Best Director) and Lady Gaga in their acting categories.
So, where does this leave the film?
Voting for the 2019 Academy Awards starts today, which means that there might be some temptation for Academy members to check out films that might not otherwise been on there radar, like say, Glenn Close's The Wife. Still, with roughly three weeks until nominations are announced (January 22), and two months until the actual ceremony (February 24), there remains ample time for the A Star Is Born hype to build back up to fever pitch.
And then there's the fact that the Golden Globes isn't necessarily an accurate predictor of the Oscars, no matter how similar they might seem to the average viewer. In 2013, FiveThirtyEight found that the Globes only predicted Oscar winners 48% of the time.
A Star Is Born had some big shoes to fill (two words: Judy. Garland.), and even bigger expectations to surpass (that trailer is itself a masterpiece), and so far, it’s done all that and more. The film currently holds an A grade in Cinemascore, and a 90% critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Evidently, the love story between Jackson Maine (Cooper), an alcoholic rock star whose career is waning, and Ally (Lady Gaga), the angel-voiced ingenue he discovers after stumbling into the drag bar she’s performing in, has struck a chord. The question now is whether or not we’ll be calling Bradley Cooper an Oscar-winning filmmaker come February.
A Star Is Born will likely still be a leading awards season contender. It’s a crowd-pleaser, has the critical backing to be taken seriously, and Hollywood loves a story about the perils of fame. Still, it’s early days yet. In December 2016, La La Land seemed a shoo-in for the golden statue, and then, well, Moonlight happened. (In an ironic turn of events, Barry Jenkins’ latest film, If Beale Street Could Talk, is almost certainly going to be in the running against A Star Is Born.) The fact that Bohemian Rhapsody also involves a real-life musical legend might be tough to beat. Hollywood loves a myth.
Nevertheless, bringing home the Oscar would be momentous for a film that, over the years, has been nominated multiple times in its different iterations but never won. Could Lady Gaga rectify Judy Garland’s egregious 1955 snub? Is it even worth holding a Best Original Song competition when you have “Shallow” in the running? Can we create a special award for Best Dog to honor Bradley Cooper’s pooch Charlie? Let’s break down A Star Is Born’s chances in 2019.

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