President Trump Is Inevitable, According To Statistical Model

Photo: Brynn Anderson/AP Images.
Are you ready for President Trump? A political science professor at Stony Brook University thinks the statistical odds of Donald Trump becoming the next president are between 97% and 99%.

According to U.S. News & World Report, Professor Helmut Norpoth developed a statistical model that's correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912. There's only one exception: the 1960 presidential election.

Norpoth says his statistical forecast shows that Trump's chances of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton are at 97%. Meanwhile, Trump's chances of defeating Bernie Sanders are at 99%.

“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said in a forecast presentation, according to the school’s newspaper, The Statesman. Though he did add that this will happen “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”

The model also predicted that if either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio win the GOP nomination, Hillary Clinton would edge them both out in a general election match-up.

The model's predictions contradict the most recent Real Clear Politics poll numbers, which actually show Clinton beating Trump in a head-to-head face-off, by about 3.4 points. And RCP has Sanders up over Trump by 8 points.


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