President Trump Is Inevitable, According To Statistical Model

Photo: Brynn Anderson/AP Images.
Are you ready for President Trump? A political science professor at Stony Brook University thinks the statistical odds of Donald Trump becoming the next president are between 97% and 99%.

According to U.S. News & World Report, Professor Helmut Norpoth developed a statistical model that's correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912. There's only one exception: the 1960 presidential election.

Norpoth says his statistical forecast shows that Trump's chances of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton are at 97%. Meanwhile, Trump's chances of defeating Bernie Sanders are at 99%.

“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said in a forecast presentation, according to the school’s newspaper, The Statesman. Though he did add that this will happen “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”

The model also predicted that if either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio win the GOP nomination, Hillary Clinton would edge them both out in a general election match-up.

The model's predictions contradict the most recent Real Clear Politics poll numbers, which actually show Clinton beating Trump in a head-to-head face-off, by about 3.4 points. And RCP has Sanders up over Trump by 8 points.


Advertisement

More from US News

Election Day lasts just one day — a 24-hour culmination of the seemingly never-ending campaign season. But we’ll spend the next two, four, six years ...
What can you do to make the candidates first head-to-head battle as pleasant as possible? What is the secret to keep yourself smizing as you listen to the ...
The 2016 presidential election has been a captivating contest. If you feel like sometimes you can't look away, well, you're not alone. Even celebrities ...
If the chaotic party politics of the 2016 election have left you feeling completely birdbrained, this video is for you. The Founding Fathers (presented ...
In the social order of bonobos, females rule and develop cross-generational bonds to keep the males in check. A senior female takes charge, intervening ...
The first presidential debate is finally upon us. On Monday, our candidates for commander-in-chief will finally go head-to-head on issues that matter ...
Update: Protests continued in Charlotte as the populace called for the release of the tape of Keith Lamont Scott's killing. Mayor Jennifer Roberts ...
Update: Officer Betty Shelby, the policewoman who fatally shot Terence Crutcher last Friday, has been charged with first-degree manslaughter, NBC News ...
Step aside, old-school political merch. We're way past bumper stickers and buttons. With the election just months away, people across the country are ...
Between Two Ferns With Zach Galifianakis: Hillary Clinton from Funny Or Die Will Tim Kaine be president for nine months if Hillary Clinton gets pregnant? ...
Goodbye, paperwork printouts and lines at the DMV. Hello, registering while in line for coffee. Starting today, you can register to vote over text ...
1. Here At Home: No charges will be filed against police in the shooting death of Korryn Gaines. Korryn Gaines, 23, was shot and killed on August 1 ...
It happened again. This week, two Black men went from living, breathing human beings to hashtags. And yet, despite all I hear about hashtag activism, I'm...
Many of the stations throughout the gun range are filled with men. But here, all the shooters — and instructors — are women