Please upgrade your browser for the best Refinery29 experience. Read more.

Saved! Access Favorites in your account profile. Removed from my favorites

President Trump Is Inevitable, According To Statistical Model

comments
Photo: Brynn Anderson/AP Images.
Are you ready for President Trump? A political science professor at Stony Brook University thinks the statistical odds of Donald Trump becoming the next president are between 97% and 99%.

According to U.S. News & World Report, Professor Helmut Norpoth developed a statistical model that's correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912. There's only one exception: the 1960 presidential election.

Norpoth says his statistical forecast shows that Trump's chances of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton are at 97%. Meanwhile, Trump's chances of defeating Bernie Sanders are at 99%.

“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said in a forecast presentation, according to the school’s newspaper, The Statesman. Though he did add that this will happen “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”

The model also predicted that if either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio win the GOP nomination, Hillary Clinton would edge them both out in a general election match-up.

The model's predictions contradict the most recent Real Clear Politics poll numbers, which actually show Clinton beating Trump in a head-to-head face-off, by about 3.4 points. And RCP has Sanders up over Trump by 8 points.


SHARE
TWEET
EMAIL